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The Autonomous Vehicle Revolution: How it will Affect the Automotive Sector (April 2015)

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Table of Contents

Authoritative overview of the current state of the autonomous car and its impact on the automotive industry – innovations, technology, legislation, business models and innovation and activity profiles of significant industry players, both OEMs, suppliers and non-automotive.

Self-driving technology has advanced so far so fast that within five years most auto executives expect to see vehicles in public use that require no human intervention. Consider how quickly things are happening:

  • Nissan and NASA, the U.S. space agency, recently signed a five-year pact to develop self-driving technology.
  • In less than two years, BMW and Mercedes will have all the components of an automated vehicle in production.
  • A software update announced in recent days will give Tesla Model S sedans the ability to drive themselves this summer.

Autonomous technology is the future of luxury vehicles, ad already the fastest growing and most profitable segment of the global auto industry.

At this year’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche unveiled Mercedes’ “Luxury in Motion” self-driving concept and called it “the redefinition of automotive luxury.”

For suppliers with the technology and readiness to move quickly — and in the right direction – self-driving vehicles are rich with possibility. Boston Consulting Group predicts the market for autonomous car technology could be worth as much as $42 billion by 2025. But who is poised to benefit? Will powerful non-automotives such as Google and Apple be allies of global automakers and suppliers, or rivals? Because of the new competition, the auto industry at a crossroads. Apple has a $178 billion cash hoard, three times what Toyota has on its book and six times Volkswagen’s cash pile.

The consensus among executives is virtually unanimous: This is a technology that will restructure the industry in terms of vehicles, the economics of the business and the participants. There will be losers and they will lose because of strategies that are ill-conceived. So much can go wrong. What vehicles will be equipped with what features? To what degree will the technology be utilized in the real world? Who are the right partners?

Information is essential. Strategic decisions are imminent. It is a crucial time for executives to understand how autonomous vehicle technology will be used and what it will change.
“Anyone who focuses solely on the technology has not yet grasped how autonomous driving will change our society” – Dieter Zetsche, Chairman of Mercedes-Benz Cars

This report examines the strategic and technical options executives are confronted with. The stakes are enormous, particularly for the European industry, if it is to maintain a leading position in technology in the face of innovation from outside the industry and from automakers and suppliers in the United States and Asia.

Contents

Introduction

Consumer acceptance

The evolution of the autonomous car

Towards a driverless future
ADAS: Enabling the next level

Regulation, risk and litigation

Reducing crash frequency
The liability trap
Cost and convenience from a policy perspective

Enabling Technology

Communications
The Connected Vehicle Programme
CAR 2 CAR

Automotive network design
Network types and design
Systems Engineering
CAN
LIN
Ethernet
FlexRay
Ethernet or FlexRay?
MOST

Software
Coping with growing complexity
AUTOSAR
GENIVI Alliance
AutoLinQ
Microsoft Auto
ElectroBit
JasPar
Robot Operating System (ROS)

Domain Controller approach

Sensors
Infrared
Radar
Lidar
Camera systems
Ultrasonic sensors
Night vision enhancement
Clustered sensors, sensor modules and sensor fusion

Human machine interface/ driver vehicle interface

Mapping and position acquisition

Industry dynamics and business models

Incremental or disruptive?
Owning a car or buying time?
Value chain development

Effects on traditional vehicle components and systems

Powertrain
Chassis systems
Interior
Exterior

Appendix  – Tables of recent announcements and trials

Company Profiles

Aisin Seiki
Apple
Baidu
BMW
Continental
Daimler
Delphi
Denso
Ford
General Motors
Google
Hella
Here
Hyundai Motors
Jaguar Land Rover
Mobileye
Omron
Smarteye
Toyota
TRW
Valeo
Velodyne
Visteon
Volkswagen
Volvo

Table of tables

Table 1 US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) definition of automation levels
Table 2 Number of Level 1 and Level 2 autonomous car-related announcements by OEM between 2013 and 2015
Table 3 Number of Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous car-related announcements by OEM between 2013 and 2015
Table 4 Autonomous vehicle innovations by OEM, year and NHTSA level
Table 5 Autonomous vehicle innovations, number of announcements by OEM and year
Table 6 Autonomous car-related announcements by selected suppliers
Table 7 Function-Specific Automation (NHTSA level 1*) examples – announcements by OEM, source, development tages and target dates
Table 8 Combined Function Automation (NHTSA level 2*) examples – announcements by OEM, source, development stages and target dates
Table 9 Limited Self-Driving (NHTSA level 3*) examples – announcements by OEM, source, development stages and target dates
Table 10 Full Self-Driving Automation (NHTSA level 4*) examples – announcements by OEM, source, development stages and target dates
Table 11 OEM and supplier collaborative ventures by announcement, year, development stage, target date and NHTSA level
Table 12 AUDI – autonomous car-related announcements
Table 13 BMW – autonomous car-related announcements
Table 14 DAIMLER – autonomous car-related announcements
Table 15 FORD – autonomous car-related announcements
Table 16 GENERAL MOTORS – autonomous car-related announcements
Table 17 GOOGLE – autonomous car-related announcements
Table 18 HONDA autonomous car-related developments
Table 19 NISSAN – autonomous car-related announcements
Table 20 TESLA autonomous car-related developments
Table 21 TOYOTA autonomous car-related developments
Table 22 VALEO, VOLKSWAGEN AND VOLVO – autonomous car-related developments
Table 23 Bus and communication standards comparison
Table 24 The role of digital mapping in providing sensor type information for ADAS systems
Table 25 Key operational and investment considerations for stakeholders within the autonomous vehicle value chain
Table 26 Strategic considerations for key stakeholders in the autonomous vehicle value chain
Table 27 Recent OEM and supplier announcements and NHTSA level
Table 28 Summary of autonomous vehicle technology trials announced 2013 – 2015

Table of figures

Figure 1: When will each OEM bring an automated car to market
Figure 2: Comparison between autonomous car level classifications
Figure 3: Various predictions about autonomous car availability
Figure 4: Automated driving requires systems expertise
Figure 5: Consumer levels of trust for automated vehicles
Figure 6: ADAS overall market value by system type
Figure 6: Legal situation for driverless cars within the US
Figure 7: Electrical power requirements versus time
Figure 8: Examples of automotive sensor applications
Figure 9: Market segmentation development for in-vehicle networks
Figure 10: Cost versus speed for automotive communication standards
Figure 11: Uses for the various communication standards
Figure 12: A schematic representation of the FlexRay architecture
Figure 13: A MOST Infotainment system in a heterogeneous networking environment
Figure 14: AUTOSAR software architecture showing components and interfaces
Figure 15: AUTOSAR membership
Figure 16: Typical existing automotive domain characteristics
Figure 17: Domain requirements for autonomous driving
Figure 18: High level architecture building blocks for autonomous vehicles
Figure 19: High performance domain control ECUs can simplify overall network complexity
Figure 20: Estimated sensor market size ($ billion)
Figure 21: A slip control system ECU with integrated inertial control sensors
Figure 22: Fusing multiple sensor information for driver assistance systems
Figure 23: A schematic showing the operation of Delphi’s electronic scanning radar
Figure 24: Volvo XC90 features Delphi’s RACam system, enabling a wide range of active safety features
Figure 25: Evolution of Bosch radar sensors
Figure 26: Relative importance of technologies in autonomous cars
Figure 27: A Bosch schematic representation of its stereo camera system
Figure 28: Bosch stereo video sensor package
Figure 29: BMW X5 night vision display
Figure 30: Hella’s active night vision system
Figure 31: Image showing pedestrian using visual and IR
Figure 32: Image showing highlighted animals
Figure 33: Mercedes-Benz Active Night View Assist with Spotlight Function
Figure 34: Audi Night Vision system
Figure 35: The effects of low and high spatial resolution (4 GHz vs 79GHz)
Figure 36: Progress towards a global harmonized 79Hz radar frequency
Figure 37: Aggregate volume for radar sensors supplied by Bosch
Figure 38: Top four HMI research questions in need of investigation
Figure 39: High definition mapping from Nokia HERE
Figure 40: A schematic of the map integration concept developed by the MAPS&ADAS sub-project
Figure 41: Shares of the autonomous car value chain
Figure 42: Potential commercial risks and opportunities with autonomous vehicles
Figure 44: Powertrain development roadmap to 2050
Figure 45: Chassis systems evolution
Figure 46: Interior connectivity
Figure 47: Mercedes-Benz F015 concept interior
Figure 48: Mercedes-Benz F015 concept interior

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